MARC details
| 000 -LEADER |
|---|
| fixed length control field |
02440 a2200205 4500 |
| 008 - FIXED-LENGTH DATA ELEMENTS--GENERAL INFORMATION |
|---|
| fixed length control field |
160405b xxu||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d |
| 020 ## - INTERNATIONAL STANDARD BOOK NUMBER |
|---|
| International Standard Book Number |
978-1-847-94714-7 |
| 082 ## - DEWEY DECIMAL CLASSIFICATION NUMBER |
|---|
| Classification number |
338.5442 |
| 100 ## - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
|---|
| Personal name |
Tetlock, Philip |
| 9 (RLIN) |
21353 |
| 245 ## - TITLE STATEMENT |
|---|
| Title |
Superforecasting : |
| Remainder of title |
the art and science of prediction |
| Statement of responsibility, etc |
Philip E Tetlock and Dan Gardner |
| 260 ## - PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, ETC. (IMPRINT) |
|---|
| Name of publisher, distributor, etc |
Random House Books |
| Date of publication, distribution, etc |
2015 |
| Place of publication, distribution, etc |
London |
| 300 ## - PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION |
|---|
| Extent |
340 p. |
| Other physical details |
Paper |
| 505 ## - FORMATTED CONTENTS NOTE |
|---|
| Formatted contents note |
An optimistic skeptic --<br/>Illusions of knowledge --<br/>Keeping score --<br/>Superforecasters --<br/>Supersmart? --<br/>Superquants? --<br/>Supernewsjunkies? --<br/>Perpetual beta --<br/>Superteams --<br/>The leader's dilemma --<br/>Are they really so super? --<br/>What's next? --<br/>Epilogue --<br/>An invitation --<br/>Appendix: Ten commandments for aspiring superforecasters. |
| 520 ## - SUMMARY, ETC. |
|---|
| Summary, etc |
What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project -- an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions -- has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are super forecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these super forecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit -- whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life. |
| 650 ## - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM |
|---|
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element |
Economic forecasting. |
| 9 (RLIN) |
21354 |
|
|---|
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element |
Forecasting. |
| 9 (RLIN) |
21355 |
| 700 ## - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
|---|
| Personal name |
Gardner, Dan |
| 9 (RLIN) |
21356 |
| 942 ## - ADDED ENTRY ELEMENTS (KOHA) |
|---|
| Source of classification or shelving scheme |
Dewey Decimal Classification |
| Item type |
Book |
