Predicting the Stock Market Index using Stochastic Time Series ARIMA Modelling: The Sample of BSE and NSE
Material type: TextDescription: 7-26 pSubject(s): In: GILANI,S. INDIAN JOURNAL OF FINANCESummary: The stock market is basically volatile, and the prediction of its movement will be more useful to the stock traders to design their trading strategies. An intelligent forecasting will certainly abet to yield significant profits. Many important models have been proposed in the economics and finance literature for improving the prediction accuracy, and this task has been carried out through modelling based on time-series analysis. The main aim of this paper was to check the stationarity in time series data and predicting the direction of change in stock market index using the stochastic time series ARIMA modelling. The best fit ARIMA (0,1,0) model was chosen for forecasting the values of time series, that is, BSE_CLOSE and NSE_CLOSE by considering the smallest values of AIC, BIC, RMSE, MAE, MAPE, standard error of regression, and the relatively high adjusted R2 values. Using this best fitted model, the predictions were made for the period ranging from January 7, 2018 to June 3, 2018 (22 expected values) using the weekly data ranging from January 6, 2014 to December 31, 2017 (187 observed values). The results obtained from the study confirmed the prospectives of ARIMA model to forecast the future time series in short-run and would assist the investing community in making profitable investment decisions.Item type | Current library | Call number | Vol info | Status | Notes | Date due | Barcode | Item holds | |
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Journal Article | Main Library | Vol 13, Issue 8/ 55510849JA1 (Browse shelf(Opens below)) | Available | 55510849JA1 | |||||
Journals and Periodicals | Main Library On Display | JRNL/FIN/Vol 13, Issue 8/55510849 (Browse shelf(Opens below)) | Vol 13, Issue 8 (01/08/2019) | Not For Loan | Indian Journal of Finance - August 2019 | 55510849 |
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Vol 13, Issue 7/ 55510699JA2 Banks' Profitability and Extent of Their Employee Outlay Nexus - An Indian Perspective | Vol 13, Issue 7/ 55510699JA3 Determinants of Financial leverage : An Empirical Analysis of Manufacturing Companies in India | Vol 13, Issue 7/ 55510699JA4 Foreign Exchange, Gold, and Real Estate Markets in India: An Analysis of Return Volatility and Transmission | Vol 13, Issue 8/ 55510849JA1 Predicting the Stock Market Index using Stochastic Time Series ARIMA Modelling: The Sample of BSE and NSE | Vol 13, Issue 8/ 55510849JA2 Impact of Negative News on the U.S. Soft Drinks Industry | Vol 13, Issue 8/ 55510849JA3 Corporate Restructuring through Mergers: A Case of ICICI Bank | Vol 13, Issue 8/ 55510849JA4 Google Search Volume and Stock Market Liquidity |
The stock market is basically volatile, and the prediction of its movement will be more useful to the stock traders to design their trading strategies. An intelligent forecasting will certainly abet to yield significant profits. Many important models have been proposed in the economics and finance literature for improving the prediction accuracy, and this task has been carried out through modelling based on time-series analysis. The main aim of this paper was to check the stationarity in time series data and predicting the direction of change in stock market index using the stochastic time series ARIMA modelling. The best fit ARIMA (0,1,0) model was chosen for forecasting the values of time series, that is, BSE_CLOSE and NSE_CLOSE by considering the smallest values of AIC, BIC, RMSE, MAE, MAPE, standard error of regression, and the relatively high adjusted R2 values. Using this best fitted model, the predictions were made for the period ranging from January 7, 2018 to June 3, 2018 (22 expected values) using the weekly data ranging from January 6, 2014 to December 31, 2017 (187 observed values). The results obtained from the study confirmed the prospectives of ARIMA model to forecast the future time series in short-run and would assist the investing community in making profitable investment decisions.
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