The present study is an attempt to assess the ‘probability of incurring loss’ of manufacturing firms in India during different phases of business cycles. We use data on a sample of 87 manufacturing companies for the period from 2002 to 2014 (comprising 1131 firm years). We use the panel logit model with the dependent variable derived from the return on assets to empirically test the hypothesis. Besides, we use firm-specific variables and macroeconomic variables as independent variables in the model. Firm-specific variables, namely size of the firm and interest coverage ratio and macroeconomic variables namely exchange rate, bank credit, inflation, interest rate and index of industrial production are statistically significant in predicting the probability of incurring loss of the firms during the study period. The results are important for investors, corporate houses, managers, lenders, policymakers and the research community as business cycles have a visible impact on all functional areas of an organization. Our study assumes significance because of the importance of macroeconomic variables in the strategic decision-making of the corporate sector in general and manufacturing firms in particular.