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An Empirical Analysis of Forecast Performance of the GDP Growth in India

By: Contributor(s): Material type: TextTextDescription: 368-386 pSubject(s): In: BANIK, ARINDAM GLOBAL BUSINESS REVIEWSummary: This article evaluates the accuracy of a forecast based on the properties of the forecast error. To measure how close the predictions of GDP growth are to the actual outcome in India, we have calculated three measures of forecast accuracy: mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and Theil’s U statistic. To evaluate the performance of the forecasts, we have compared them with naive forecast and common rules of thumb, using moving averages (MAs) as rules of thumb. The results are inconclusive regarding biasedness and also inefficient. Further, the forecasts have a high degree of correlation among themselves. The findings of forecast errors suggest that the performance of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) forecasts is favourable compared to other organizations, as well as with respect to the general international standard.
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Holdings
Item type Current library Call number Vol info Status Notes Date due Barcode Item holds
Journal Article Journal Article Main Library Vol 20, No 2/ 55510427JA6 (Browse shelf(Opens below)) Available 55510427JA6
Journals and Periodicals Journals and Periodicals Main Library On Display JP/GEN/Vol 20, No 2/55510427 (Browse shelf(Opens below)) Vol 20, No 2 (10/03/2019) Not for loan April, 2019 55510427
Total holds: 0

This article evaluates the accuracy of a forecast based on the properties of the forecast error. To measure how close the predictions of GDP growth are to the actual outcome in India, we have calculated three measures of forecast accuracy: mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and Theil’s U statistic. To evaluate the performance of the forecasts, we have compared them with naive forecast and common rules of thumb, using moving averages (MAs) as rules of thumb. The results are inconclusive regarding biasedness and also inefficient. Further, the forecasts have a high degree of correlation among themselves. The findings of forecast errors suggest that the performance of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) forecasts is favourable compared to other organizations, as well as with respect to the general international standard.

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