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Does Government Deficit Crowd Out Private Investment? An Empirical Analysis for National and Sub-National Governments

By: Contributor(s): Material type: TextTextDescription: 7-36 pSubject(s): In: MURTHY, E N APPLIED ECONOMICSSummary: Expansionary fiscal policy can stimulate or retard growth in an economy depending on whether it crowds in or crowds out private investment. Amidst mixed results in the literature, the present study makes a comprehensive attempt to examine crowding out evidence by exploring the link between Gross Fiscal Deficit (GFD) on the one hand, and real interest rates and private investment, on the other, in a time series framework for the central government and panel framework for 23 state governments. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration results confirm the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between GFD, adjusted for cycles, and real rate of interest for central government for the period 1980-81 to 2017-18, thus supporting financial crowding out. While support for real crowding out is weak for central government, for the state governments, support has been found for real crowding out, with the strength of the coefficient rising when GFD is financed by gross market borrowings. This reinforces the need for both tiers of government-national and sub-national-to continue efforts towards fiscal consolidation, improving the quality of expenditure and to try financing their deficits less via market borrowings and more through own revenues.
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Holdings
Item type Current library Call number Vol info Status Notes Date due Barcode Item holds
Journal Article Journal Article Main Library Vol 18, No 3/ 55510830JA1 (Browse shelf(Opens below)) Available 55510830JA1
Journals and Periodicals Journals and Periodicals Main Library On Display JOURNAL/ECO/Vol 18, No 3/55510830 (Browse shelf(Opens below)) Vol 18, No 3 (01/07/2019) Not for loan July, 2019 55510830
Total holds: 0

Expansionary fiscal policy can stimulate or retard growth in an economy depending on whether it crowds in or crowds out private investment. Amidst mixed results in the literature, the present study makes a comprehensive attempt to examine crowding out evidence by exploring the link between Gross Fiscal Deficit (GFD) on the one hand, and real interest rates and private investment, on the other, in a time series framework for the central government and panel framework for 23 state governments. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration results confirm the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between GFD, adjusted for cycles, and real rate of interest for central government for the period 1980-81 to 2017-18, thus supporting financial crowding out. While support for real crowding out is weak for central government, for the state governments, support has been found for real crowding out, with the strength of the coefficient rising when GFD is financed by gross market borrowings. This reinforces the need for both tiers of government-national and sub-national-to continue efforts towards fiscal consolidation, improving the quality of expenditure and to try financing their deficits less via market borrowings and more through own revenues.

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