000			02440 a2200205 4500
008			160405b xxu||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d
020			_a978-1-847-94714-7
082			_a338.5442
100			_aTetlock, Philip _921353
245			_aSuperforecasting : _bthe art and science of prediction _cPhilip E Tetlock and Dan Gardner
260			_bRandom House Books _c2015 _aLondon
300			_a340 p. _bPaper
505			_a An optimistic skeptic -- Illusions of knowledge -- Keeping score -- Superforecasters -- Supersmart? -- Superquants? -- Supernewsjunkies? -- Perpetual beta -- Superteams -- The leader's dilemma -- Are they really so super? -- What's next? -- Epilogue -- An invitation -- Appendix: Ten commandments for aspiring superforecasters.
520			_aWhat if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project -- an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions -- has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are super forecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these super forecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit -- whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life.
650			_aEconomic forecasting. _921354
650			_aForecasting. _921355
700			_aGardner, Dan _921356
942			_2ddc _cBK
999			_c41941 _d41941