External Commercial Borrowing in India and Its Sensitivity to Macroeconomic Factors: An Empirical Analysis
Material type: TextDescription: 47-62 pSubject(s): In: MURTHY, E N APPLIED FINANCESummary: The share of External Commercial Borrowing (ECB) in the total external borrowing is rising in India. The government is also progressively relaxing the rules to raise ECB. The present study empirically examines ECB in India and its relationship with the exports, imports, Index of Industrial Production (IIP), Foreign Investment (FI), Exchange Rate (ER) and Interest Rate Differential (IRD) for the period September 1999 to September 2012 on a quarterly basis. It also tries to ascertain the cost of ECB, which normally is believed to be cheaper, against the three currencies-US Dollar (USD), Japanese Yen (JPY) and Great Britain Pound (GBP)-for the period 1978-2011. The methodology adopted for this study is based on the application of time series econometrics. It is observed, on application of Augmented Dicky Fuller test and Phillips-Perron test, that the time series of each variable is nonstationary at level and stationary at first difference and, therefore, is subjected to the analysis as a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). From the cointegrating vector it is found that there is a significant long-term positive relationship with IIP, IRD and ER and a negative relationship with imports and FI. In the short run, imports, IRD, ER and FI have positive relationship with ECB, while exports and IIP show a negative relationship. The Granger causality test shows that there is a unidirectional causality. The variance decomposition analysis shows that most of the movements in ECB are explained by the IRD, followed by IIP. The ECB in JPY has been found to be cheaper than in the GBP or in USD in most of the years.Item type | Current library | Call number | Vol info | Status | Notes | Date due | Barcode | Item holds | |
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Journal Article | Main Library | Vol 23, No 3/ 5557545JA3 (Browse shelf(Opens below)) | Available | 5557545JA3 | |||||
Journals and Periodicals | Main Library On Display | JOURNAL/FIN/Vol 23, No 3/5557545 (Browse shelf(Opens below)) | Vol 23, No 3 (01/07/2017) | Not for loan | July, 2017 | 5557545 |
The share of External Commercial Borrowing (ECB) in the total external borrowing is rising in India. The government is also progressively relaxing the rules to raise ECB. The present study empirically examines ECB in India and its relationship with the exports, imports, Index of Industrial Production (IIP), Foreign Investment (FI), Exchange Rate (ER) and Interest Rate Differential (IRD) for the period September 1999 to September 2012 on a quarterly basis. It also tries to ascertain the cost of ECB, which normally is believed to be cheaper, against the three currencies-US Dollar (USD), Japanese Yen (JPY) and Great Britain Pound (GBP)-for the period 1978-2011. The methodology adopted for this study is based on the application of time series econometrics. It is observed, on application of Augmented Dicky Fuller test and Phillips-Perron test, that the time series of each variable is nonstationary at level and stationary at first difference and, therefore, is subjected to the analysis as a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). From the cointegrating vector it is found that there is a significant long-term positive relationship with IIP, IRD and ER and a negative relationship with imports and FI. In the short run, imports, IRD, ER and FI have positive relationship with ECB, while exports and IIP show a negative relationship. The Granger causality test shows that there is a unidirectional causality. The variance decomposition analysis shows that most of the movements in ECB are explained by the IRD, followed by IIP. The ECB in JPY has been found to be cheaper than in the GBP or in USD in most of the years.
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